-100%

est. 2Y upside i

Pre-Seed

Nominal builds the essential software stack that enables hardware teams to test and iterate as rapidly as software teams. Nominal empowers engineers to continuously monitor, validate, and deploy innovations, transforming how mission-critical hardware is built and operated.

Rank

#3813

Sector

Industrial Software

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity offer is likely to be value-destructive given Nominal's current $1B valuation on only $4.7M ARR with 6% YoY growth.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (15%)-100%

Revenue grows to $5.3M by June 2028, but even with an exit multiple of 12x, valuation of $63.6M is far below entry, leading to 100% loss after dilution.

Base (50%)-100%

Revenue reaches $5.3M, exit multiple converges to 8x, valuation $42.4M, resulting in complete loss of equity value.

Bear (35%)-100%

Revenue disappoints, multiple compresses to 4x, exit $21.2M below $182.5M preferred stack, common stock holders receive nothing.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

1825%

Total preferred stock of $182.5M represents 18.25% of current valuation, providing moderate downside protection for preferred holders but leaving common with limited recovery in a downside scenario.

Dilution Risk

high

With only $4.7M ARR and likely high burn, the company will need to raise additional capital within 24 months, potentially at lower valuations, diluting common stock by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; equity is illiquid until a liquidity event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Nominal's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is your current ARR growth rate and how do you plan to accelerate it?”

  • 2

    “How does your platform create switching costs for customers like Anduril and DARPA?”

  • 3

    “What would need to happen for the company to achieve a 10x revenue multiple at exit?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -100% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.