+342%

est. 2Y upside i

Series B

Rank

#14

Sector

Warehouse Automation

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Despite severe preference dilution and revenue opacity, the equity upside is compelling: even the bear case yields +160% net of dilution, and the base case +439% reflects the 220% growth and low 4.2x revenue multiple.

Last updated: August 21, 2026

Bull (30%)+300%

If Nomagic's Physical AI (vision-language-action) continues reducing interventions by ~50% and the IPO window opens, the company could sustain a 6x forward multiple on projected $196M revenue, implying a ~$1.17B exit (8.4x entry). After 20 percentage points dilution and Series B cap, upside is capped at +300%.

Base (50%)+439%

With ~165% and ~124% growth, revenue reaches $196M and the exit multiple converges to ~4x forward revenue, implying a $783M exit (5.6x entry). After 20 percentage points dilution, net upside is ~439%.

Bear (20%)+160%

If growth slows faster or competition compresses multiples, exit multiple falls to ~2x forward revenue, implying a $391M exit (2.8x entry). After 20 percentage points dilution, net upside is ~160%, still above the $84M preference stack so common stock has positive recovery.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

60%

Total preferred liquidation preference of $84.1M equals 60% of the $140M valuation, so common stock is effectively last in line.

Dilution Risk

high

Runway likely extends past 24 months, but a raise or IPO may dilute common by ~20 percentage points.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market marks have been observed; liquidity likely tied to an IPO or acquisition.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Nomagic's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Nomagic's Physical AI moat translate into pricing power vs. traditional warehouse automation?”

  • 2

    “What is the mix of RaaS vs. one-time sales, and how does that impact recurring revenue visibility?”

  • 3

    “Given the Series B cap and 20% dilution expectation, what is management's roadmap to an IPO or acquisition as a liquidity event?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +342% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.