New Incentives

newincentives.org

-72%

est. 2Y upside i

Healthcare

Cash transfers that save lives.

Rank

#3348

Sector

Public Health

Est. Liquidity

~6Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity opportunity at New Incentives offers moderate upside potential driven by its proven impact and strong mission in public health, supported by its recognition as a top charity.

Last updated: February 24, 2026

Bull (20%)+150%

Significant expansion of vaccination and ORS programs, securing substantial new long-term funding, and demonstrating even greater cost-effectiveness and impact.

Base (45%)+20%

Continued steady growth in program reach and impact, maintaining current funding levels, and solidifying partnerships in Northern Nigeria.

Bear (35%)-60%

Funding challenges, operational setbacks due to security or political issues, or a failure to demonstrate continued impact, leading to a significant reduction in perceived value for common equity holders.

Est. time to liquidity~6.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Assuming a notional valuation of $250M for equity grants, investors with $142M in total funding hold significant liquidation preferences (56.8% of valuation), meaning common stock holders may receive little or nothing in an exit at or below this valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

As an NGO, future funding rounds (grants/donations) are essential for operations and growth, which could implicitly dilute the value of existing equity if the organization's overall 'valuation' doesn't grow significantly or if new equity-like instruments are issued.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no established secondary market for equity in non-governmental organizations like New Incentives, making liquidity highly improbable within a typical timeframe.

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -72% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.