-68%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & Infra

Rank

#3505

Sector

Database Management, Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Oracle, the parent company of MySQL, is a large, stable public company with strong cloud growth (FY25 total cloud revenue up 27% to $6.7B).

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (20%)+80%

Oracle successfully executes its 'decisive new approach' for MySQL, rebuilding community trust and accelerating innovation, particularly with HeatWave's AI and multicloud capabilities. This drives significant adoption and revenue growth for Oracle's cloud database services, contributing to Oracle's overall market cap reaching approximately $790 billion by 2028, an 80% increase from its current valuation.

Base (50%)+20%

MySQL maintains its widespread user base but continues to face strong competition from PostgreSQL, leading to moderate growth for Oracle's MySQL-related revenues. Oracle's overall cloud business continues its steady expansion, resulting in a 20% increase in Oracle's market cap to approximately $528 billion by 2028, in line with broader large-cap tech market performance.

Bear (30%)-40%

Community concerns over Oracle's stewardship of MySQL intensify, leading to further market share erosion by PostgreSQL and other competitors. Oracle's efforts to revitalize MySQL fail to gain significant traction, and a broader market downturn or increased competition in cloud services negatively impacts Oracle's stock, leading to a 40% decline in market cap to approximately $264 billion, significantly reducing equity value.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Dilution Risk

low

Employee equity grants are subject to standard public company dilution, which is typically well-managed and transparent.

Secondary Liquidity

active

Oracle stock (ORCL) is actively traded on the NYSE, providing immediate liquidity upon vesting.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on MySQL's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the recent surge in PostgreSQL's popularity and developer adoption, how is Oracle specifically planning to differentiate MySQL and regain market share in the open-source database landscape?”

  • 2

    “Oracle has announced a 'decisive new approach' for MySQL, including publishing a development roadmap and integrating AI features into the Community Edition. What are the key performance indicators (KPIs) that the MySQL team is tracking over the next 12-24 months to measure the success of this new strategy and rebuild community trust?”

  • 3

    “Considering that equity would be in Oracle stock, how does the company communicate the strategic importance and growth trajectory of the MySQL business unit to its employees, and what are the typical vesting schedules and liquidity options for RSU holders?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -68% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.