-63%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries B

MotherDuck provides data infrastructure and analytics for both small and big data. The company combines DuckDB's elegance and speed with the collaborative and scalable capabilities of the cloud to offer a serverless, user-friendly analytics platform suitable for both small and large datasets.

Rank

#1701

Sector

Cloud Data Warehousing

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

MotherDuck operates in a high-growth market with a compelling technical approach, but faces a 'high' incumbent threat from well-resourced competitors and has an estimated annual revenue of $12.6M against a $400M valuation, implying aggressive growth expectations.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (10%)+300%

MotherDuck achieves market leadership in its niche, with its AI functions and hybrid execution model driving rapid adoption and displacing legacy solutions. Revenue scales to over $50M by 2028, justifying a $1.6B valuation at 32x revenue, representing a 300% upside.

Base (50%)+100%

MotherDuck continues to grow steadily, securing its position in the mid-market for serverless analytics. Revenue reaches approximately $32M by 2028, leading to an $800M valuation at 25x revenue, representing a 100% upside.

Bear (40%)-55%

Dominant incumbents like Snowflake and BigQuery aggressively target MotherDuck's niche, combined with negative customer reaction to recent pricing changes, leading to stalled growth and intense pricing pressure. Revenue only reaches $18M by 2028, resulting in a down round valuation of $180M at 10x revenue, wiping out a significant portion of common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

33%

Investors hold $133M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at the current $400M valuation, common shareholders would only see returns after this $133M is paid out, effectively reducing the common equity value to $267M. If the exit is below $133M, common shareholders get nothing.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series B+ company with estimated annual revenue of $12.6M, MotherDuck will likely require additional funding rounds, leading to further dilution for existing equity holders before a liquidity event.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

While platforms like Forge and Hiive facilitate secondary transactions for accredited investors, liquidity is limited and subject to company approval and right of first refusal policies.

Customer Success — 1 role

Marketing — 1 role

Sales — 1 role

View all 3 open roles at MotherDuck →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on MotherDuck's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the 'high' incumbent threat from giants like Snowflake and Google BigQuery, and the recent 10x price increase for entry-level plans, how does MotherDuck plan to sustain its competitive differentiation and customer acquisition in the next 12-24 months?”

  • 2

    “With an estimated annual revenue of $12.6M and a $400M valuation, what are the key milestones and growth levers the company is focused on to justify and grow beyond this valuation, particularly in expanding beyond its core cloud data warehousing niche into AI-powered data analytics?”

  • 3

    “Considering the $133M in total funding and the Series B+ stage, what is the anticipated timeline for a liquidity event (IPO or acquisition), and how is the company thinking about managing potential future dilution for common shareholders?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -63% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.