-56%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLDevOps & InfraSeries B

MotherDuck provides data infrastructure and analytics for both small and big data. The company combines DuckDB's elegance and speed with the collaborative and scalable capabilities of the cloud to offer a serverless, user-friendly analytics platform suitable for both small and large datasets.

Rank

#3339

Sector

AI, Data & Cloud Infrastructure

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

MotherDuck's equity offers limited upside over 2 years with a negative expected return of -55.5%.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+7%

If MotherDuck achieves category leadership or IPO window, multiple could hold at 20x. Revenue projected to $24.3M gives $486M exit. After 15% dilution, net upside 6.5%.

Base (40%)-42%

Multiple converges to 12x, exit $291.6M. After dilution (15pp) and preference stack, common suffers -42.1% loss.

Bear (40%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 5x, exit $121.5M below $133M preference stack, common stock wiped out.

Est. time to liquidity~3.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

3325%

Total funding of $133M vs $400M valuation gives preferred a 33.25% stack, common wiped out below $133M exit.

Dilution Risk

moderate

With $133M raised and likely continued burn, a future round within 2 years could dilute existing holders by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market implied value reported; likely no liquidity for employees pre-IPO.

Customer Success — 1 role

Marketing — 1 role

Sales — 1 role

View all 3 open roles at MotherDuck →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on MotherDuck's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does MotherDuck plan to achieve profitability or break-even given the high burn rate and competitive pricing?”

  • 2

    “What specific market segments does MotherDuck target where public cloud providers are weakest?”

  • 3

    “Given the 31.75x revenue multiple, what growth trajectory is priced in and what milestones justify it?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -56% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.