+3%

est. 2Y upside i

HR TechSeries A

ModernLoop helps teams automate and streamline recruiting operations

Rank

#3488

Sector

HR Tech

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

ModernLoop is a high-risk equity position on a 2-year horizon: the probability-weighted expected upside is only ~3%, anchored by a ~42% bear-case probability of near-total common-stock loss driven by severe preference-stack overhang ($12.4M against an estimated $25–35M current valuation) and an uncertain growth trajectory.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (15%)+175%

ModernLoop accelerates to $7–8M ARR by 2027–2028, attracts a Series B at ~$65–80M or is acquired by a large ATS/HRIS platform at 8–10x revenue (~$60–80M enterprise value). After absorbing the $12.4M preference stack and approximately 20% dilution from a new round, common equity holders realize roughly 2.5–3x on today's estimated fair value of ~$25–30M.

Base (43%)+30%

Revenue grows modestly to $4.5–5.5M ARR, the company stays private and extends runway without a full Series B, and no liquidity event occurs within the 2-year window. Equity appreciates on paper to a ~$30–38M implied valuation (7–8x ARR), representing a ~30% gain that remains fully illiquid absent a secondary transaction or exit.

Bear (42%)-85%

Growth plateaus below $4M ARR as Greenhouse, Lever, and Calendly embed native scheduling, enterprise budget cuts reduce recruiting software spend, and ModernLoop fails to attract a credible Series B; the company is eventually acqui-hired or wound down. The $12.4M liquidation preference absorbs effectively all exit proceeds, leaving common equity holders with near-total loss.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

41%

$12.4M in total liquidation preferences against an estimated $25–35M current fair value (approximately 7–8x $3.5M ARR) implies preferred holders control 35–50% of the exit waterfall before common stock receives a dollar.

Dilution Risk

high

A future Series B — necessary for meaningful growth — will likely add 18–25% dilution to common holders on top of existing cap-table overhang from the $12.4M already raised.

Secondary Liquidity

none

At $3.5M ARR, 20 employees, and no disclosed valuation or tender history, there is no established secondary market for ModernLoop equity and employees should expect full illiquidity until an acquisition or IPO.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at ModernLoop →

Last updated: February 17, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on ModernLoop's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the current ARR and quarter-over-quarter growth trend since the 2022 Series A, and what ARR milestone is the company targeting before initiating a Series B process?”

  • 2

    “Is the company default alive on current revenue run-rate, what is the monthly burn and remaining runway, and is a bridge or extension round being considered?”

  • 3

    “What is the current 409A valuation and strike price on options, and has the board discussed any secondary liquidity program or tender offer for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.