+42%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries C

Serverless cloud platform for running AI and data-intensive applications

Rank

#1048

Sector

AI Infrastructure

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Modal presents a promising equity opportunity for a job candidate, with an expected 2-year upside of ~42% driven by strong revenue growth to ~$696M and a large TAM.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (30%)+125%

Modal maintains its high growth trajectory, achieving ~$696M ARR by May 2028. The exit multiple expands to 15x due to an IPO window and category leadership in AI infrastructure, yielding a 124.5% upside to a $10.44B market cap.

Base (50%)+20%

Modal grows to ~$696M ARR but the multiple contracts to 8x, in line with public comps (MNDY, ASAN, TEAM). This results in a 19.7% upside to a $5.57B market cap.

Bear (20%)-25%

Growth slows more than expected or competition from cloud incumbents intensifies. The multiple compresses to 5x on $696M ARR, leading to a 25.2% downside to a $3.48B market cap. Preference stack is not triggered as exit value exceeds total funding.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: 46% (raw: 42%, adjustment: +4%)

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

1000%

Total funding of $466M represents 10% of the $4.65B valuation, so preferred stock holds a moderate overhang of $466M, but bear case exit ($3.48B) is well above that.

Dilution Risk

low

With $355M raised in May 2026 and $300M ARR, runway is likely 2+ years, reducing the need for near-term additional funding and dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market transactions or implied valuation data are available, indicating limited liquidity for current shareholders.

Engineering — 16 roles

G&A — 5 roles

Design — 2 roles

Finance — 2 roles

View all 31 open roles at Modal →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Modal's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Modal plan to differentiate from AWS SageMaker and Google Vertex AI over the next 2 years?”

  • 2

    “What is the unit economics (e.g., gross margin and payback period) for a typical customer, and what is the path to profitability?”

  • 3

    “Given the recent $355M Series C, what is the expected timeline to IPO or acquisition, and how does that align with employee equity liquidity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +42% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.