+25%

est. 2Y upside i

Aerospace

Rank

#1503

Sector

Aerospace and Defense

Est. Liquidity

~1Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The expected 2-year upside is +24.8%, driven by explosive revenue growth but tempered by a severe preference stack and high dilution risk.

Last updated: August 3, 2026

Bull (30%)+80%

Merlin captures category leadership in autonomous flight; 2028 revenue reaches $160.8M and the stock trades at 8x forward revenue (market cap ~$1.29B). After 20% dilution from future raises, common stock upside is +80%.

Base (45%)+57%

Revenue grows to $160.8M but the multiple compresses to 4x forward revenue, in line with defense tech comps, implying a $643M market cap. After 20% dilution, upside is +57%.

Bear (25%)-100%

If revenue growth stalls or funding fails, the company may be valued at 1x forward revenue (~$161M), below the $214M preferred liquidation preference, making common stock worthless.

Est. time to liquidity~1.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

59%

Total funding of $214M is 59% of the current market cap, giving preferred holders a massive liquidation preference.

Dilution Risk

high

With Q1 2026 burn of $90M and only $80M raised in May, a substantial raise is likely, potentially diluting holders by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

active

The stock trades on NASDAQ as MRLN, so vested RSUs can be sold immediately on the open market.

View all 33 open roles at Merlin →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Merlin's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How do you plan to achieve certification for autonomous flight in both military and civil aviation, and what is the expected timeline?”

  • 2

    “What is your strategy to reduce cash burn and reach profitability, given the substantial losses?”

  • 3

    “What was the exact share count and equity structure after the SPAC merger, and how will future raises dilute existing shareholders?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +25% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.