-65%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Marble Health is a tech-first mental health platform that connects students to high-quality, affordable therapy through their schools. By partnering with school counselors, Marble identifies students in need and matches them with licensed therapists, online or in person, with care covered by insurance.

Rank

#3437

Sector

Mental Health, Digital Health

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The expected equity value is negative (-65%) over a 2-year horizon due to severe preference overhang ($20.5M on a $50M assumed valuation), high implied multiple, and likely dilution.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)-4%

If Marble achieves strong school contract growth and an IPO window opens, exit multiple could sustain at 10x, yielding a net -4% return after 20% dilution from a future raise.

Base (55%)-71%

Exit multiple converges to public comp range of ~3x, resulting in -71% return after dilution, with preference overhang further pressuring common equity.

Bear (25%)-100%

Exit value below total funding of $20.5M, so common stock recovers 0% due to liquidation preference.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

41%

Total funding of $20.5M on an assumed $50M valuation creates a 41% preference overhang, which severely limits common equity recovery in a downside exit.

Dilution Risk

high

With limited runway (est. 18 months) and no disclosed profitability, a subsequent raise is highly likely, diluting existing common by an estimated 20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

As a private Series A company, there is no secondary market liquidity for employee equity.

View all 8 open roles at Marble Health →

Last updated: September 6, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Marble Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the current ARR and near-term growth trajectory?”

  • 2

    “How do you plan to achieve profitability given the high burn rate and reliance on insurance reimbursements?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline and valuation for the next funding round?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -65% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.