-98%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries A

Manifold enables web3 creators to have creative ownership, preserve on-chain provenance, and interoperate with all major NFT marketplaces.

Rank

#3996

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the severe preference overhang ($7.91M vs assumed $10M valuation) and the company's low run-rate revenue ($151K), equity is highly likely to be worthless at exit within 2 years.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)-79%

Assuming a robust market recovery in NFTs, Manifold achieves $500K revenue in 24 months with a 20x multiple, yielding a $10M exit. Common stock recovers $2.09M after 1x preference, resulting in a 79% loss from entry valuation of $10M.

Base (50%)-100%

Revenue grows to $295K, but multiple compresses to 5x, exit $1.475M, below total funding; common recovers nothing, -100%.

Bear (40%)-100%

Revenue stagnates or declines due to competition and regulatory hurdles, exit multiple falls to 2x, exit $590K, common recovers nothing, -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

79%

Total funding of $7.91M represents 79% of assumed $10M valuation, meaning common stock only receives residual value above $7.91M in an exit.

Dilution Risk

high

With latest round in May 2023 and modest funding, a new raise within 24 months is likely, leading to additional dilution of 15-25% for existing shareholders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; equity is illiquid until a liquidity event (IPO or acquisition).

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Manifold's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Manifold plan to differentiate from OpenSea's native minting tools?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's path to revenue growth beyond transaction fees?”

  • 3

    “Given the regulatory risk, how does the company ensure compliance with evolving securities laws?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -98% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.