-32%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries D+

Mental health benefits platform for workforce well-being

Rank

#3413

Sector

HealthTech

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the negative expected upside (-32.4%) over 2 years, this equity grant is likely to lose value.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)+82%

If Lyra executes an IPO that re-rates the business at 10x forward revenue, driven by strong growth and market leadership, common equity could double. Incumbent threats cap further upside.

Base (40%)-35%

Multiple converges to public comp range (4.5x), resulting in common equity declining despite revenue growth. Dilution from a future fundraise compounds the loss.

Bear (40%)-87%

Intense competition and slower growth compress the multiple to 2x, severely undercutting common value after preference stack.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -26% (raw: -32%, adjustment: +7%)

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

27%

$915M in preference overhang represents 27% of entry enterprise value, meaning common stock only participates after this amount.

Dilution Risk

high

Given 1.5+ years since last raise, a new round likely dilutes common shareholders by ~20%.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market exists (implied $3.37B) but limited volume.

G&A — 3 roles

International Provider Jobs — 2 roles

People — 2 roles

Product & Design — 2 roles

Provider Network Ops — 2 roles

Business Development — 1 role

View all 275 open roles at Lyra Health →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Lyra Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Lyra differentiate against Optum's digital tools?”

  • 2

    “What is the path to profitability given the current burn rate?”

  • 3

    “What is your confidence in the 2026 IPO timeline and the valuation it would command?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -32% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.