-55%

est. 2Y upside i

Series A

Rank

#3331

Sector

Carbon Removal

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Equity upside is highly uncertain due to a stale valuation, severe preference overhang ($63.4M), and low current revenue.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (25%)0%

Category leadership and an IPO window allow the exit multiple to expand to 12x, yielding a $180M exit. After 20% dilution, net upside is 0%.

Base (50%)-60%

Multiple converges toward public comp range of 6x, exit value $90M. After 20% dilution, net downside -60%.

Bear (25%)-100%

Exit value below $63.4M preference stack, common stock recovers -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

4230%

Total funding of $63.4M represents 42% of estimated entry valuation, creating severe preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Given burn rate and growth, a raise within 24 months is likely, diluting equity by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists; employees hold illiquid common stock.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on lithos's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Lithos plan to scale revenue from $2M to a level that justifies its valuation?”

  • 2

    “What is the customer concentration risk given dependence on a few large buyers?”

  • 3

    “What is the likely timeline to an IPO or exit, and how will employee equity be treated?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -55% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.