-5%

est. 2Y upside i

Series B

Rank

#2434

Sector

Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The expected 2-year equity upside is -5.5%, making this a risky proposition.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (17%)+72%

Multiple expands to 18x driven by IPO license approval and Robinhood integration driving revenue to $187.5M. Valuation reaches $3.375B, up 72% from entry.

Base (46%)-4%

Multiple converges to 10x in line with public comps. Revenue reaches $187.5M but valuation at $1.875B, slightly below entry.

Bear (37%)-43%

Multiple compresses to 6x due to Hyperliquid dominance. Revenue growth disappoints, exiting at $1.125B, a 42.6% decline from entry.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

454%

Total preferred liquidation preference is $89M representing 4.5% of entry valuation, low risk.

Dilution Risk

low

Company is profitable with $125M revenue, no expected near-term dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market implies $1.96B valuation, indicating some liquidity for employees.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at Lighter →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Lighter's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Lighter plan to differentiate from Hyperliquid's dominant market share?”

  • 2

    “What are the unit economics behind the zero-fee model for retail traders?”

  • 3

    “Given the downside risk, what is the expected liquidity timeline and does the company have plans for secondary sales?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -5% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.