Knock
+118%
est. 2Y upside i
Notification infrastructure platform for in-app email push and SMS
Rank
#354
Sector
Developer Tools, Business/Productivity Software
Est. Liquidity
~5Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumKnock is a credible, developer-first Series A company with genuine momentum — $4M ARR, a $1M net-new-ARR quarter in April 2026, and logo customers like Vercel and Zapier — making the expected long-run equity upside (~118% probability-weighted) attractive for a developer-tools role.
Last updated: May 5, 2026
Knock sustains ~100% YoY growth, reaching $15–18M ARR by 2028, attracting a strategic acquirer (Twilio, Salesforce, or similar) or a Series C at 20x ARR implying a $300–360M valuation — roughly 6–7x an estimated current implied valuation of ~$50M. Developer-tool consolidation trends and marquee customers like Vercel, Amplitude, and Zapier make a premium acquisition plausible within a 5–6 year window.
Growth moderates to 50–60% YoY; Knock reaches $10–12M ARR by 2028 and raises a Series B at 12–15x ARR, implying a $120–180M valuation and roughly 2.5–3.5x the estimated ~$50M current implied value. A liquidity event remains 5–7 years out, and common stockholders see meaningful but not transformative returns once the $18M liquidation preference stack is cleared.
Competitive pressure from open-source Novu and well-funded OneSignal commoditizes notification APIs; growth slows to under 25% YoY and Knock plateaus near $5–6M ARR, making a Series B difficult to raise at current multiples. A distressed sale or down round near or below the $18M total liquidation preference wipes out most common-stock value, leaving employee equity worth 35 cents on the dollar or less.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
40%With $18M in total liquidation preferences against an estimated ~$45–50M current implied valuation, preferred stockholders consume roughly 36–40% of exit proceeds before common stock participates — exits below ~$60M return little or nothing to employees.
Dilution Risk
highKnock will almost certainly require a Series B to scale past $10M ARR, likely adding 15–25% dilution, with potential further dilution from a Series C or pre-IPO round — cumulative dilution for current employees could reach 35–50% before any liquidity event.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo secondary market activity or tender offer program is indicated for a 25-person Series A company; employee shares are effectively illiquid until an acquisition or IPO, realistically 4–7 years out.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Knock's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“What is the net revenue retention rate today, and how has it trended over the past four quarters — does expansion revenue from existing customers like Vercel and Zapier offset churn meaningfully enough to sustain growth without heavy new-logo acquisition?”
- 2
“At what ARR level does the company project reaching break-even, and is there a plan to get there before needing to raise a Series B — or is the next raise already being contemplated given the current burn rate on $18M total funding?”
- 3
“What is the current 409A valuation per share and the fully-diluted share count, and has the board discussed a secondary liquidity program or employee tender offer given that a liquidity event is likely 5+ years away?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +118% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.