-45%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries A

Inversion was founded with the mission to build the first affordable return capability for the commercial and defense space industries. With launching to space becoming cheap and frequent, comparable options for return must become available to allow for a robust economy in space.

Rank

#3636

Sector

Aerospace and Defense

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity upside over 2 years is unattractive (expected -45%) due to a high 64x implied trailing multiple and likely multiple compression.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+21%

Revenue reaches $30M annual run-rate by June 2028 via Golden Dome contract wins. Exit multiple holds at 15x (above comps) due to IPO window and category leadership, yielding a $450M exit. After 20% dilution, upside is 20.6%.

Base (40%)-26%

Revenue grows to $30M, but multiple compresses to 10x (mid-comp range) as growth normalizes. Exit value $300M, resulting in a -6.25% return before dilution; net -26.25% after dilution.

Bear (50%)-73%

Revenue misses at $30M, multiple compresses to 5x due to SpaceX competition and slow contract execution. Exit value $150M, far below entry. After 20% dilution, return is -73.1%. Preference overhang does not apply as exit exceeds total funding.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

1690%

Total funding $54.1M (17% of $320M valuation) creates a substantial preference overhang, reducing common equity value in downside scenarios.

Dilution Risk

high

With $5M revenue and high capital intensity, a funding round is likely within 12-24 months, potentially diluting common by 20%+.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists; liquidity requires an exit (IPO or acquisition) expected in 3+ years.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at Inversion →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Inversion's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Inversion plan to win contracts against SpaceX's proven re-entry capabilities?”

  • 2

    “What is the revenue mix and visibility from government vs. commercial customers?”

  • 3

    “Given the high burn rate, what is the expected timeline to next funding round and how does that affect equity value?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -45% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.