-73%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries C

Rank

#3517

Sector

Manufacturing AI Software

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity upside is strongly negative (-72.6% expected) over 2 years due to a very high and stale entry valuation of $300.9M on only $8.9M ARR.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (25%)-26%

Bull case: 20x exit multiple assumes IPO window and category leadership. Revenue reaches $14.2M. Entry valuation of $300.9M barely supported, resulting in -5.8% before dilution, -25.8% after 20% dilution.

Base (50%)-82%

Base case: Exit multiple converges to 8x public comp range. Revenue of $14.2M yields $113.4M exit. After preference and dilution, upside -82.3%.

Bear (25%)-100%

Bear case: Multiple compresses to 3x, exit value $42.5M below $81.7M preference stack. Common stock recovers -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

27%

Total preferred of $81.7M on $300.9M valuation is high overhang at 27%.

Dilution Risk

high

Likely need additional funding within 24 months given burn rate and time since last round.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market observed; no secondary implied valuation.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Instrumental's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Instrumental plan to capture more of the manufacturing AI market beyond complex electronics?”

  • 2

    “What are the unit economics (LTV/CAC) for your subscription customers?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline to liquidity and what signals would indicate an IPO or acquisition?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -73% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.