+14%

est. 2Y upside i

E-CommerceSeries A

Humble Bundle is a digital content distribution service, now a part of Ziff Davis.

Rank

#1726

Sector

Digital Distribution, Gaming, E-commerce

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Equity upside is modest at ~14% expected return over 2 years, driven by a stable but low-growth digital distribution business.

Last updated: August 10, 2026

Bull (20%)+67%

Humble Bundle's charitable brand and a possible spin-off/IPO window could boost revenue to $119M and expand the multiple to 3.5x, implying a $416M exit value and +67% upside.

Base (50%)+19%

Revenue grows to $119M while the 2.5x revenue multiple holds, yielding a $298M exit value and +19% upside.

Bear (30%)-29%

Steam/Epic competition and bundle fatigue compress the multiple to 1.5x on $119M revenue, producing a $179M exit value and -29% downside, with minimal preference overhang.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

188%

With only $4.7M in total preferred funding and an estimated $250M valuation, the preference overhang is ~2%, so common stock retains nearly all exit proceeds above the preference.

Dilution Risk

low

No new funding rounds since 2011; parent Ziff Davis provides capital, so dilution risk from new equity is minimal.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists; any equity is likely in the private subsidiary and tied to a long-term exiting event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Humble Bundle's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How will Humble Bundle differentiate against Steam/Epic when storefront competition is intensifying?”

  • 2

    “What portion of revenue is from bundles vs Humble Choice vs the storefront, and how does that mix trend?”

  • 3

    “What is the parent's plan for Humble Bundle equity liquidity (IPO, spin-off, buyback)?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +14% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.