-70%

est. 2Y upside i

RoboticsAI & ML

Humanoid is the first AI and robotics company in the UK, creating the world’s most advanced, reliable, commercially scalable, and safe humanoid robots. Our first humanoid robot HMND 01 is a next-gen labour automation unit, providing highly efficient services across various use cases, starting with industrial applications.

Rank

#1593

Sector

Humanoid Robotics, AI

Est. Liquidity

~6Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Humanoid operates in a high-growth, high-potential sector, but faces significant challenges.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (15%)+400%

Humanoid rapidly scales its HMND 01 deployment with Siemens and Schaeffler, securing additional major industrial customers and expanding into new verticals. The RaaS model proves highly efficient, driving ARR to over $100M by 2028 and justifying a $1.25B+ valuation, a 5x increase from its current assumed $250M valuation.

Base (45%)+75%

Humanoid achieves steady adoption within its initial industrial target market, growing revenue to $40M-$50M ARR by 2028. While facing strong competition, its modular design and focused approach allow it to maintain a niche, leading to an acquisition or next funding round at a $437.5M valuation.

Bear (40%)-80%

Intense competition from well-funded incumbents like Figure AI and Tesla Optimus, coupled with high development costs and slower-than-expected customer adoption, limits Humanoid's growth. Revenue stalls below $10M ARR, leading to a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $50M, wiping out most common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~6.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Investors hold $50M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock, representing 20% of the assumed $250M current valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

As an early-stage company with high capital intensity, significant future funding rounds are likely, leading to further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no indication of active secondary markets or tender offers for Humanoid's shares at this early stage.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Humanoid's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the intense competition from companies like Figure AI and Tesla Optimus, how does Humanoid plan to maintain and strengthen its competitive moat beyond its current focus on rapid development and modular design?”

  • 2

    “With a high capital intensity business model and the RaaS revenue model, what are the key milestones for achieving profitability and how is the company managing its burn rate to extend runway?”

  • 3

    “Considering the 'founder-led capital' of $50M, what is the company's strategy for future funding rounds, and what is the expected timeline for a liquidity event for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -70% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.