-91%

est. 2Y upside i

E-Commerce

Stage: exit. Country: Germany

Rank

#3709

Sector

E-commerce / Home & Living Retail

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Equity upside is highly negative due to declining revenue, critical competition, and a preference stack that makes common stock worthless below $352M.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)-10%

With XXXLutz synergies, revenue stabilizes at ~$614M and exit multiple expands to 0.8x, giving exit value $491M; after preference, common recovers $139M, but upside is -48.8% (or -10% with a more optimistic 1x multiple).

Base (35%)-100%

Revenue continues declining to $523M; exit multiple stays at 0.45x, valuing the company at $235M, below total funding of $352M; common stock receives nothing.

Bear (55%)-100%

Revenue accelerates decline to $440M; exit multiple compresses to 0.25x; exit value $110M, far below preference; common stock zero.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

12950%

Total funding of $352M exceeds current valuation of $272M, leaving no residual value for common stock in a liquidation scenario.

Dilution Risk

low

No further funding expected as company is wholly owned by XXXLutz.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists since the squeeze-out eliminated minority shareholders.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on home24's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does XXXLutz plan to leverage home24’s technology and logistics to drive growth?”

  • 2

    “What is the path to profitability given declining revenue and high capital intensity?”

  • 3

    “Is there any employee stock purchase plan or liquidity program for private company shares?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -91% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.