Health Catalyst

healthcatalyst.com →

-3%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries D+

Rank

#3631

Sector

HealthTech

Est. Liquidity

~1Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Health Catalyst is a high-risk equity proposition.

Last updated: May 5, 2026

Bull (10%)+150%

New CEO Ben Albert executes a credible turnaround, stabilizing revenue around $305M and demonstrating a clear path to operating profitability via restructuring savings. P/S re-rates from the current depressed 0.34x toward 0.85x, implying a ~$260M market cap and roughly 150% upside within 24 months.

Base (50%)+5%

Revenue continues declining modestly at ~3–5% annually, reaching ~$285M by end of 2027, while workforce reductions partially offset margin pressure but fail to restore growth confidence. The stock trades range-bound at a compressed 0.35–0.40x P/S, producing minimal upside of ~5% from today's $107M market cap.

Bear (40%)-50%

Revenue decline accelerates to double digits under leadership transition uncertainty, cash burn intensifies, and sell-side downgrades deepen. Market cap falls toward $50M as the P/S compresses further or a distressed strategic acquisition occurs at a negligible premium to current levels.

Est. time to liquidity~1.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

366%

Health Catalyst is publicly traded on NASDAQ (HCAT); RSUs and options convert directly to unrestricted common stock with no liquidation preference overhang from prior preferred shareholders.

Dilution Risk

moderate

With $392M raised against a $107M market cap, the company may require additional equity raises or dilutive partnerships to fund operations while remaining unprofitable, pressuring per-share value.

Secondary Liquidity

active

As a NASDAQ-listed company, vested shares can be sold on the open market immediately after vesting, subject only to standard trading window blackout periods.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Health Catalyst's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“What specific financial milestones — revenue growth rate, adjusted EBITDA margin — has the board set for Ben Albert to hit in year one, and what happens if he misses them?”
2
“How is net revenue retention trending among your top 20 clients after the workforce reduction, and how is client satisfaction being monitored during the leadership transition?”
3
“For new hires receiving RSUs, what is the vesting schedule and cliff, and does the equity plan include double-trigger acceleration in the event of an acquisition?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -3% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.