-9%

est. 2Y upside i

HR TechSeries D+

Payroll benefits and HR platform for small and medium businesses

Rank

#2498

Sector

HR Software

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Gusto is a profitable, $1B+ revenue HR software leader with a moderate moat and strong market position.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (15%)+51%

Driven by successful IPO within 2 years, high-growth multiple expands to 10x forward revenue, revenue reaches $1.4B, valuation ~$14B, yielding 51% upside.

Base (45%)-2%

Multiple converges to comp average of 6.5x, revenue growth to $1.4B, valuation ~$9.1B, slightly below entry valuation; common stock near break-even.

Bear (40%)-40%

Intense competition from ADP and Paychex compresses multiple to 4x, revenue growth disappoints, valuation drops to $5.6B, common equity loses 40%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

8%

Total preferred liquidation preference of $752M, representing 8% of entry valuation, so common stock retains significant value even in moderate downside.

Dilution Risk

low

Company is profitable with $1B revenue, unlikely to raise capital in next 24 months; equity grants likely to be primary dilution but manageable.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary trades occurred in 2025, but ongoing liquidity for employees is uncertain; IPO is the likely liquidity event.

Other — 95 roles

View all 95 open roles at Gusto →

Last updated: September 6, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Gusto's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Gusto plan to compete against ADP and Paychex's entrenched customer base?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's strategy for international expansion given recent guidance acquisition?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline for an IPO and how does management view employee liquidity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -9% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.