-86%

est. 2Y upside i

Rank

#3657

Sector

Consumer Goods / Beauty & Personal Care

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Glossier's equity offers severely negative expected value (-86.5%) over 2 years, with a high probability of total loss.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)-58%

Potential M&A catalyst (LVMH interest) or operational turnaround supports a 4x revenue exit ($622M), but minimal revenue growth and preference/dilution still cause a 57.8% loss.

Base (35%)-73%

Revenue stagnates at ~$155M by 2028; multiple converges to 3x (low end of beauty comps), yielding $466M exit, well below entry and preference, resulting in a 73.4% loss after dilution.

Bear (55%)-100%

Revenue below $250M and multiple contracts to 1.5x ($233M exit) below $311M preference; common stock is wiped out entirely.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

31%

Total preferred funding of $311M represents 31% of the $1B valuation, creating a significant overhang; common stock recovers only after preferred is paid.

Dilution Risk

high

With low revenue growth and negative cash flow, a future equity raise is probable, diluting existing holders by an estimated 20%.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary transactions trade near current valuation, but market depth is likely shallow due to negative sentiment.

Other — 6 roles

View all 6 open roles at Glossier →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Glossier's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How will Glossier differentiate against celebrity-backed brands like Rare Beauty and Rhode?”

  • 2

    “What is the path to profitability given the high overhead and declining store footprint?”

  • 3

    “Given the secondary valuation and recent restructuring, how do you assess employee equity outcomes over a 2-4 year horizon?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -86% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.