-100%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries C

Rank

#4477

Sector

Fintech, Cryptocurrency

Est. Liquidity

~0Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity opportunity at FTX is non-existent.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (5%)-100%

Even in a highly optimistic scenario where the FTX bankruptcy estate successfully recovers a significant portion of assets, common equity holders are at the bottom of the preference stack and would receive no value. The focus is entirely on repaying creditors, with some even receiving 118% of their claims, while equity is wiped out.

Base (15%)-100%

The company remains in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, focused on asset recovery and creditor distributions. The historical $32B valuation is irrelevant, and common equity in a defunct, bankrupt entity holds no value for a job seeker. Creditor payouts are ongoing, with distributions scheduled for March 2026.

Bear (80%)-100%

FTX is a defunct company that collapsed due to massive fraud. Its operations ceased, and it is undergoing liquidation. Any equity offered in the current FTX entity is worthless, representing a complete loss of investment for a job seeker.

Est. time to liquidity~0.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

5%

With FTX in bankruptcy, all creditors, including those with claims totaling billions, are ahead of common equity holders. Creditors are receiving distributions, while common equity is typically wiped out.

Dilution Risk

high

While traditional dilution from new funding rounds is not applicable, the equity is already fully diluted to zero value due to the bankruptcy.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no active secondary market for equity in a defunct, bankrupt company.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on FTX's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Could you clarify the specific entity offering this equity? My understanding is that FTX Trading Ltd. is currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, focused on creditor repayment, and its historical $32B valuation is not reflective of an operational business. How would this equity offer provide any value or upside?”

  • 2

    “Given the extensive fraud and the company's defunct status, what is the long-term vision for this equity, and what specific milestones or events would lead to any realization of value for common shareholders?”

  • 3

    “The news indicates that FTX is distributing assets to creditors, with some even receiving 118% of their claims based on November 2022 values. How does the proposed equity package for employees fit into this creditor recovery process, and what is the expected recovery for common equity holders?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -100% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.