Fractyl Health

fractyl.com →

-40%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareIPO

Rank

#3103

Sector

Biotechnology

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Fractyl Health's equity offers a highly speculative risk-reward.

Last updated: July 21, 2026

Bull (10%)+100%

Positive clinical data and potential partnership drive exit multiple expansion to ~1000x on $316k revenue, implying ~$316M exit value. Capped at +100% due to late-stage constraints.

Base (55%)-27%

Gradual progress with continued cash burn; exit multiple compresses to 300x on $316k revenue, giving $95M pre-dilution. After 20% dilution, per-share value falls 26.5%.

Bear (35%)-100%

Clinical trial failure or inability to raise capital leads to zero value; common stock becomes worthless.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

61000%

Total preferred funding of $417.3M is historical; preferred shares likely converted at IPO, so no overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

With $68M market cap and high burn rate, additional dilutive equity issuance is probable.

Secondary Liquidity

active

Shares are publicly traded on NASDAQ under ticker (assumed).

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Fractyl Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How do you plan to differentiate from GLP-1-based therapies that have already achieved massive adoption?”

  • 2

    “What is the timeline to commercial revenue and how does the company plan to fund operations until then?”

  • 3

    “Given the recent layoffs and low stock price, what is the retention strategy for key talent?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -40% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.