Formation Bio

formation.bio →

-78%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareAI & MLSeries D+

Formation Bio (FKA TrialSpark) is a tech-driven pharma company changing the way drug development is done.

Rank

#3561

Sector

Biotechnology, AI-driven Drug Development

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given an entry valuation of $1.8B based on a stale round, high preference overhang ($615M), and uncertain growth, the expected equity upside over 2 years is -78%.

Last updated: July 21, 2026

Bull (10%)-18%

If IPO window opens and category leadership allows multiple to expand to 30x, exit value reaches $1.84B, but dilution reduces upside to -18%.

Base (45%)-69%

Multiple converges to 15x, exit value $0.92B, dilution leads to -69% upside.

Bear (45%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 8x, exit value $0.49B below preference stack, common stock returns -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

34%

Total funding of $615M represents 34.2% of valuation, implying significant preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Likely need to raise additional capital within 24 months, potentially diluting existing holders by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; liquidity expected only through IPO or acquisition.

Other — 24 roles

Associate Director, Bioanalytical Development · New York, NY; Boston, MA
Associate Director, Drug Product Development · New York, NY; Boston, MA
Associate Director, Drug Substance, Biologics · New York, NY; Boston, MA
+21 more →

View all 24 open roles at Formation Bio →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Formation Bio's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“How does Formation Bio's platform differentiate from Recursion and Schrodinger's approaches?”
2
“What is the company's path to profitability given its high burn rate?”
3
“Given the preference stack, what is the realistic common stock outcome if the company is acquired below $615M?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -78% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.