-14%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries B

Rank

#3842

Sector

Digital Health

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Folx Health is a high-risk equity situation driven primarily by a severe preference stack: $59.4M in total funding against an estimated current valuation of ~$62M (5x revenue) means common stockholders have negligible residual value at today's implied 409A price.

Last updated: May 5, 2026

Bull (15%)+150%

A major health system or large insurer acquires FOLX Health at a strategic premium of $150-180M (~12-15x current revenue of $12.3M) to gain a turnkey LGBTQ+ care platform and provider network. After satisfying $59.4M in liquidation preferences, common stockholders receive meaningful proceeds, yielding approximately 150% upside from a deeply discounted 409A entry price.

Base (50%)-20%

The company closes a bridge or Series C round to extend runway, diluting existing common holders an estimated 15-25%, with no liquidity event occurring within the 2-year window. Common stock value stagnates or compresses modestly relative to the 409A entry price, producing roughly -20% real return over the period.

Bear (35%)-75%

Federal and state restrictions on gender-affirming care materially shrink the addressable market while the 3.5-year-old Series B depletes; the company executes a distressed down round or is acquired at $30-50M, well below $59.4M in liquidation preferences. Employee common stock is effectively wiped out, resulting in approximately -75% to -100% loss.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

96%

$59.4M in total liquidation preferences sits against an estimated current valuation of ~$62M (5x $12.3M revenue), leaving approximately $2-3M in residual equity value for all common stockholders combined.

Dilution Risk

high

With no new capital raised since October 2022 and no evidence of profitability, a future financing round is highly probable and will further dilute current common holders — likely by an additional 15-30% depending on terms.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity or employee liquidity program has been disclosed; with only 63 employees and no tender offer signals, secondary sales are effectively unavailable.

View all 13 open roles at Folx Health →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Folx Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the Series B closed in October 2022, what is the current cash runway and is the company on a path to profitability at $12.3M revenue, or actively fundraising a new round?”

  • 2

    “How is the revenue mix shifting between direct subscription and insurance reimbursement following the 2023 in-network expansion, and what are the gross margin and churn implications of that channel shift?”

  • 3

    “When was the most recent 409A valuation conducted, what is the current common stock FMV relative to the Series B preferred price, and has the board explored any secondary liquidity or tender offer programs for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -14% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.