-77%

est. 2Y upside i

Series C

Application hosting platform for running full-stack apps close to users

Rank

#3897

Sector

Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS)

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given a 47% growth rate but a stale $467M valuation and high competition, the expected upside for a 2-year equity horizon is -77%.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)-22%

If Fly.io achieves category leadership in edge PaaS and an IPO window opens, revenue grows to $19.2M and exit multiple expands to 30x, but preference stack and dilution still result in a small loss for common stock after preference.

Base (45%)-83%

Revenue grows to $19.2M but multiple compresses to 15x as competition intensifies; after 1x preference and dilution, common stock loses over 80% of value.

Bear (35%)-100%

Edge computing competition from Big Tech forces multiple to 8x; common stock is nearly wiped out by preference and dilution.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -80% (raw: -77%, adjustment: -3%)

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2460%

Total funding of $115M represents 24.6% of current valuation, creating a $115M senior claim on any exit.

Dilution Risk

high

Based on $11.2M revenue and $115M total funding, the company likely needs additional capital within 2 years, potentially diluting common by 20% or more.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity indicated.

Other — 2 roles

  • Jobs · Want to work on super fun problems with (arguably) likable people? Then you’ve come to the right place.
  • RSS Feed · Fly.io is a fully distributed global team, and we love that. We offer a bunch of benefits and perks designed to support our diverse team:
View all 2 open roles at Fly.io →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Fly.io's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Fly.io differentiate from Cloudflare Workers and AWS Fargate in terms of developer experience and latency?”

  • 2

    “What is your customer acquisition unit economics and how does that influence your growth model?”

  • 3

    “With recent layoffs and the departure of a core infrastructure lead, how is the company retooling its engineering team?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -77% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.