+5%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

The first public safety operating system that eliminates crime.

Rank

#1951

Sector

GovTech

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Expected upside is ~4.7% over 2 years, with high risk from incumbent Axon and regulatory challenges.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+104%

If Flock maintains 70%+ growth and IPO window opens, market awards 15x ARR multiple, driving valuation to $19.4B, net of 20% dilution yields 104% upside.

Base (40%)+3%

Multiple compresses to 8x ARR due to Axon competition, valuation reaches $10.3B, net of dilution produces only 3% upside.

Bear (40%)-43%

Axon's 20% price cut pressures margins, multiple falls to 5x, valuation drops to $6.5B, net of dilution results in 43% loss; preference not triggered.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

1390%

$1.17B in total funding represents 13.9% of current valuation, creating moderate preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Flock is raising new funds, likely adding 15-25% dilution for employees.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; liquidity likely only via IPO or acquisition.

View all 9 open roles at Flock Safety →

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Flock Safety's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How will Flock Safety defend against Axon's 20% price undercutting?”

  • 2

    “What is the unit economics (LTV/CAC) and how will they evolve as you scale?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline to liquidity and what signals suggest an IPO?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +5% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.