-45%

est. 2Y upside i

Data & Analytics

Automated data pipeline and ELT platform for cloud data warehouses

Rank

#3517

Sector

Data Integration

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Fivetran presents a moderate upside opportunity, primarily driven by its strategic merger with dbt Labs, which aims to create a comprehensive data platform with nearly $600M in combined ARR.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (20%)+80%

The merger with dbt Labs is highly successful, creating a dominant end-to-end data platform that capitalizes on AI tailwinds. The combined entity achieves a valuation of $18B+ by 2028, pushing Fivetran's implied valuation to $10B+.

Base (45%)+30%

The Fivetran-dbt Labs merger proceeds as planned, and the combined entity performs solidly, achieving a valuation of $12B-$14B. Fivetran's implied valuation grows to $7.3B, reflecting steady growth and market position.

Bear (35%)-45%

Merger integration challenges, intensified competition from major cloud providers like AWS and Snowflake, or a market downturn lead to a lower combined valuation. Fivetran's implied valuation drops to $3.08B, significantly impacting common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~2.5 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: 9% (raw: -45%, adjustment: -5%)

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

13%

Investors hold $730M in total funding against a $5.6B valuation, representing 13.03% of the company's value, which is a moderate preference stack.

Dilution Risk

moderate

The all-stock merger with dbt Labs represents a form of dilution for existing Fivetran shareholders, and future funding rounds for the combined entity could further dilute equity.

Secondary Liquidity

active

An active secondary market exists for Fivetran shares, with platforms like PM Insights, UpMarket, Nasdaq Private Market, and Forge facilitating trades for accredited investors.

Other — 168 roles

View all 168 open roles at Fivetran →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Fivetran's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is the combined Fivetran-dbt Labs entity planning to differentiate itself and maintain its competitive edge against the data ingestion and transformation offerings from major cloud providers like AWS, Google, and Snowflake?”

  • 2

    “With Fivetran's 2024 revenue at $325M and 32.65% YoY growth, what are the key strategies for accelerating growth and expanding market share for the combined entity over the next 2-3 years, particularly in the context of AI-driven data needs?”

  • 3

    “Given the all-stock merger with dbt Labs and the existing preference stack, what is the company's strategy for ensuring meaningful liquidity and value realization for common stock holders, and what is the anticipated timeline for a potential IPO of the merged company?”

Cluster Peers

Expected Upside

Monte Carlo
-36%
Starburst
-53%
Airbyte
-71%
dbt Labs
-71%

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -45% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.