Fireflies.ai

fireflies.ai →

-84%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLProductivitySeries A

AI meeting assistant for transcription summarization and action items

Rank

#3637

Sector

Enterprise Software, Artificial Intelligence, Collaboration

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity has extremely poor expected returns (-83.5% over 2 years) due to a stratospheric valuation multiple (91.7x) against anemic 5% revenue growth.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (10%)+7%

Fireflies maintains its 91.7x multiple if an IPO window opens or it achieves category leadership, leading to a 7.3% gain on the $1B entry valuation from $11.7M projected revenue.

Base (45%)-91%

Multiple compresses to ~8x, in line with public comparables (ZM, MNDY, ASAN), yielding a $93.6M exit value and a 90.6% loss.

Bear (45%)-97%

Multiple drops to 3x, below comp range, due to incumbent threats and slow growth, resulting in a $35.1M exit value and a 96.5% loss.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -85% (raw: -84%, adjustment: -1%)

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

190%

Total preferred stock is only $19.1M against a $1B valuation (1.9% overhang), so common shareholders face minimal preference risk.

Dilution Risk

low

The company is profitable with $10.9M ARR, so it is unlikely to need a dilutive fundraising round in the next 24 months.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

A recent secondary market valuation of $1B suggests some liquidity, but it's limited and may not be available to employees.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Fireflies.ai's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How do you plan to compete with Microsoft and Google's native meeting transcription features?”

  • 2

    “Your revenue model includes AI credits; what drives usage and how do you prevent churn?”

  • 3

    “Given the company's high valuation and low growth, what is the realistic timeline to liquidity for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -84% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.