-26%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries D+

Rank

#3090

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Expel presents a moderate upside opportunity for a job seeker, driven by its strong ~50% YoY revenue growth and position in the expanding MDR market.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+100%

Expel leverages its strong integration ecosystem and AI-driven platform to capture significant market share in the rapidly growing MDR space, potentially expanding into adjacent security services. Revenue accelerates to $250M+ by 2028, justifying a $2.0B+ valuation at 8x revenue, driven by successful IPO or strategic acquisition by a major tech player.

Base (45%)+25%

Expel maintains its strong growth trajectory at ~40% YoY, holding its position in the competitive MDR market by continuing to differentiate through transparent operations and extensive integrations. Revenue reaches approximately $175M by 2028, leading to a modest valuation increase to $1.25B, likely through an acquisition or a cautiously valued IPO.

Bear (30%)-40%

Intensified competition from well-resourced incumbents like CrowdStrike and Microsoft, coupled with a potential slowdown in cybersecurity spending, compresses Expel's growth and pricing power. Revenue growth decelerates, and the company struggles to justify its current valuation, leading to a down round or acquisition at a reduced valuation of $0.6B, significantly impacting common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~2.5 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: 29% (raw: -26%, adjustment: +5%)

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

29%

Investors hold $289M in liquidation preferences, meaning common shareholders would only see returns on the $711M remaining after these preferences are met in an exit at the current $1.0B valuation.

Dilution Risk

moderate

As a late-stage private company, further funding rounds are possible before an IPO or acquisition, which could dilute existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

While platforms like Forge and EquityZen facilitate secondary market transactions for private companies, liquidity is not guaranteed and is subject to company approval and market interest.

View all 11 open roles at Expel →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Expel's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Expel plan to sustain its competitive edge and market share against the aggressive expansion of incumbents like CrowdStrike and Microsoft into the MDR space?”

  • 2

    “Given the company's $100M revenue and ~50% YoY growth, what are the key strategic initiatives to reach the next revenue milestone (e.g., $250M or $500M) and what is the expected timeline for a liquidity event?”

  • 3

    “With a Series E funding round in 2022 and a significant preference stack, how does Expel communicate the potential equity value and liquidity timeline to employees, especially considering the recent layoff?”

Cluster Peers

Expected Upside

Huntress
+27%
Arctic Wolf
-65%

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -26% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.