-89%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries A

Rank

#3690

Sector

Industrial AI / Manufacturing Technology

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity upside is deeply negative across all scenarios due to a stale $71M valuation on only $1.2M revenue (59x multiple).

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)-59%

Bull case: Exit multiple expands to 10x (above comp range) on IPO window and category leadership. Projected revenue $4.32M, exit value $43.2M. Net of 20% dilution: -59.2%.

Base (45%)-84%

Base case: Multiple compresses to comp range midpoint of 6x. Projected revenue $4.32M, exit value $25.9M. Net of 20% dilution: -83.5%.

Bear (45%)-100%

Bear case: Multiple compresses to 3x, exit value $12.96M below total funding of $24.5M. Preference stack wipes out common, recovery -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

3450%

Total preferred funding of $24.5M represents 34.5% of the $71M valuation, creating a severe overhang that prioritizes preferred holders before common.

Dilution Risk

high

With Series A from May 2024 and current revenue of $1.2M, the company likely needs a Series B within 12-18 months, diluting common by an estimated 20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity detected; employee shares are illiquid until a liquidity event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on EthonAI's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is EthonAI's current ARR and net dollar retention, and how have these trended over the past four quarters?”

  • 2

    “How does EthonAI plan to defend against incumbent players like Siemens and Bosch who are embedding similar AI capabilities?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline and path to liquidity (IPO or M&A), and how does the cap table treat common shareholders in a downturn?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -89% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.