+9%

est. 2Y upside i

Vertical SaaSSeries A

The Logistics Operating System for E-commerce in LatAm

Rank

#3325

Sector

Logistics

Est. Liquidity

~6Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Estoca is a high-risk equity bet at its current $94M Series A valuation, with a probability-weighted expected upside of only ~9% over 2 years and a 40% bear-case probability of an -80% loss.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (15%)+200%

Estoca captures meaningful share of Brazil's $4B e-commerce fulfillment SAM (even 0.5% implies ~$20M ARR), raises a Series B at ~$235–280M (2.5–3x current $94M valuation), and attracts strategic interest from a Mercado Livre or global logistics acquirer. A +200% outcome is the ceiling for a 2-year window and requires either a liquidity event or a highly valued secondary opportunity.

Base (45%)+25%

Estoca continues growing its D2C customer base and raises a Series B or bridge at a 1.2–1.3x premium to the current $94M valuation (~$113–122M implied). Without a liquidity event in the 2-year window, the +25% gain is illiquid paper, and practical realized upside for an employee is minimal.

Bear (40%)-80%

Funding markets remain tight for LatAm logistics (the last raise was 2+ years ago at $6.1M), Brazil macro deteriorates, or Mercado Livre Fulfillment and Amazon accelerate their 3PL offerings and compress Estoca's win rate. A down round, acqui-hire, or wind-down erases most common equity value, with $7.72M in preferred liquidation preferences absorbing exit proceeds first.

Est. time to liquidity~6.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

8%

Total preferred liquidation preferences of ~$7.72M sit ahead of common stock against a $94M valuation, an 8.2% overhang that is meaningful but not catastrophic at the current cap — the real risk compounds if a down round reprices the stack.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series A company, Estoca will likely require at least two more financing rounds before a liquidity event, each expected to dilute current equity holders by 15–25%, implying 30–45% cumulative dilution before an exit.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No known secondary market activity exists for Estoca shares; as a private LatAm startup backed by regional VCs, tender offers or secondary transactions are highly unlikely within the 2-year window.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Estoca's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is your current ARR, month-over-month growth rate, and unit economics per order — and are you on a path to breakeven before needing to raise your next round?”

  • 2

    “How does your win rate and gross margin compare when a D2C brand evaluates Estoca alongside Mercado Livre Fulfillment, and what is your average customer retention after 12 months?”

  • 3

    “What is the total fully diluted share count, what percentage of shares would my grant represent, and how much runway do you have before the next financing event?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +9% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.