-53%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Rank

#735

Sector

Health Tech

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Ellipsis Health presents a moderate upside opportunity, driven by its strong proprietary vocal biomarker technology and strategic partnerships with industry giants like Salesforce and CVS Health Ventures.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+350%

Ellipsis Health achieves FDA clearance for its vocal biomarker technology, leading to rapid adoption by major payers and providers. Leveraging its Salesforce partnership, Sage becomes a dominant AI care manager, expanding beyond behavioral health into broader care management. Revenue scales to $60M-$70M by 2028, justifying a 10x-12x multiple and a $600M-$800M valuation, representing a 350-500% upside.

Base (45%)+80%

Ellipsis Health continues to grow steadily, securing additional enterprise contracts and demonstrating strong ROI for its existing customers. While facing ongoing competition and navigating regulatory pathways, it establishes itself as a niche leader in AI-powered behavioral health monitoring. Revenue reaches $30M-$40M by 2028, leading to an acquisition or IPO at a $250M-$300M valuation, providing an 85-120% upside.

Bear (30%)-75%

Regulatory hurdles prove more challenging than anticipated, delaying widespread adoption. Competitors, including larger incumbents or well-funded startups, gain significant market share with similar or broader AI solutions. Growth stalls, and the company struggles to raise subsequent funding at a higher valuation, potentially leading to a down round or a low-value acquisition. Valuation drops to $20M-$40M, resulting in a -70% to -85% downside, significantly impacting common stock value due to $75M in liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

56%

Investors hold $75M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at or below the current $135M valuation, common stock holders would only see returns after this $75M is paid out.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series A company, Ellipsis Health will likely require additional funding rounds, which will dilute existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Some secondary market activity exists via platforms like UpMarket, but typically with high minimum investment requirements ($50,000).

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Ellipsishealth's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the high regulatory barrier for AI in healthcare, what is Ellipsis Health's specific strategy and timeline for achieving FDA clearance for its vocal biomarker technology, and how might recent FDA guidance changes impact this?”

  • 2

    “With a current revenue of ~$11M and a TAM of $12.7B, what are the key milestones and growth strategies over the next 2-3 years to significantly scale revenue and market penetration, especially considering the competitive landscape with players like Infinitus, Assort Health, and larger tech companies?”

  • 3

    “Considering the total funding of $75M on a $135M valuation, which implies a significant liquidation preference, how does Ellipsis Health plan to manage future funding rounds to minimize dilution for common stock holders, and what is the anticipated timeline for a liquidity event for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -53% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.