-35%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraData & AnalyticsSeries B

Rank

#3041

Sector

Developer Tools, Data Orchestration

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the stale Series B 2023 valuation ($150M assumed), no disclosed revenue, and high implied multiple (50x) relative to public comps (10-15x), the expected 2-year equity upside is negative (~-35%) with low confidence.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (30%)+73%

If IPO or acquisition accelerates, multiple holds near 50x on $5.8M revenue, yielding $290M exit. After 20% dilution, net upside ~73%.

Base (50%)-74%

Multiple converges to 12x on $5.8M revenue, exit $69.6M. After dilution and preference, common returns ~26% of entry, a 74% loss.

Bear (20%)-100%

Multiple falls to 6x, exit $34.8M barely above $33M preference. After dilution, common recovers ~0%, for -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2200%

Total funding $33M vs assumed $150M valuation gives 22% preference overhang, meaning common stock is deeply subordinated.

Dilution Risk

high

With $33M raised in 2023 and 50 employees, a new round is likely within 24 months, diluting existing holders by ~20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market trades have been noted; employee shares are illiquid until a liquidity event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Elementl's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Dagster Labs plan to monetize and grow revenue beyond the open-source community?”

  • 2

    “What is the current ARR and net dollar retention?”

  • 3

    “What is the timeline to profitability or next fundraise, and how will that affect employee equity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -35% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.