-47%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries B

Predictive Explorer and Driller for Critical Metal Deposits

Rank

#991

Sector

AI-powered Mineral Exploration

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Earth AI presents a moderate upside opportunity driven by its strong proprietary AI and drilling technology, operating in a rapidly expanding critical minerals market.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (35%)+250%

Proprietary AI and low-disturbance drilling technology continue to deliver industry-leading 75% discovery success rates, enabling rapid expansion to 50+ project sites and 100,000 meters of drilling annually. This drives revenue to $80M+ by 2028, justifying a $420M+ valuation (3.5x current) as demand for critical minerals soars and strategic partners seek Earth AI's proven technology.

Base (30%)+75%

Earth AI maintains its competitive edge in AI-driven mineral exploration, securing new projects and making consistent discoveries. Revenue grows steadily to $30M by 2028, leading to a $210M valuation (1.75x current) as the company navigates a competitive landscape with well-funded players like KoBold Metals.

Bear (35%)-65%

Increased competition from KoBold Metals and in-house AI initiatives by large mining companies erode Earth AI's market share and pricing power. Technical challenges or regulatory delays slow project development, leading to stalled revenue growth at $15M and a down round to a $42M valuation, significantly impacting common stock value due to existing liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Investors hold $43.4M in liquidation preferences based on total funding. In an estimated $120M exit, common shareholders would receive $76.6M.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series B company, Earth AI will likely need at least 1-2 more significant funding rounds before an exit, potentially diluting current equity by 20-40%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No active secondary market or tender offers are indicated for a company at this stage.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on EARTH AI's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given KoBold Metals' significant funding and valuation, how does Earth AI plan to differentiate and compete effectively for market share and talent in the AI-powered mineral exploration space over the next 2-3 years?”

  • 2

    “With current estimated revenue at ~$8M and a target of increasing the project pipeline to over 50 sites and drilling capacity to 100,000 meters annually, what is the projected revenue growth trajectory for the next 24 months, and what key milestones are critical to achieving those targets?”

  • 3

    “As a Series B company with high capital intensity, how does Earth AI envision its path to a liquidity event for employees, and what are the company's plans for managing potential future dilution and providing any secondary liquidity options?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -47% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.