-39%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries B

Predictive Explorer and Driller for Critical Metal Deposits

Rank

#3100

Sector

AI-driven Mineral Exploration

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity is highly speculative and carries severe downside risk due to an estimated $100M entry valuation (stale Series B mark), a massive $43.4M preference stack that absorbs over 40% of the company, and high capital intensity requiring dilutive future rounds.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (25%)+69%

Revenue grows to $13.5M with ~60% CAGR; AI-driven discovery success sustains premium multiple of 14x, supported by IPO window and critical metals demand.

Base (55%)-66%

Revenue reaches $13.5M; multiple compresses to 4x as market normalizes and growth decelerates, leading to exit value of $54M, well below preference stack.

Bear (20%)-100%

Revenue $13.5M; multiple collapses to 2x due to competition and lack of profitability; exit value $27M is below $43.4M preference stack, wiping out common equity.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

62000%

Total funding of $43.4M represents 43% of estimated $100M valuation, giving preferred shareholders a strong claim on any exit proceeds.

Dilution Risk

high

With $43.4M raised and high burn rate, another round within 2 years is likely, diluting common stock by an estimated 20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; no liquidity for employees until exit.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on EARTH AI's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does your AI model differentiate from KoBold Metals and what proprietary data do you have that competitors cannot replicate?”

  • 2

    “What is the typical timeline from discovery to revenue (offtake or JV) and how do you manage the long cash cycle?”

  • 3

    “Given the high preference overhang, how does the company plan to create meaningful common equity value for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -39% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.