DolarApp

ARQ achieves viral adoption across Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina, scaling to $50M+ ARR by 2028 and attracting an acquisition or IPO path at $700M+ valuation; Sequoia and Founders Fund brand accelerates a structured exit, delivering ~120% gross upside on common stock after the $90.3M preference stack clears. Penetration even to 0.01% of the $341B SAM would represent ~10x revenue from current levels.

ARQ grows steadily to $20–30M ARR by 2028 but remains private with no liquidity event inside the 2-year window; paper valuation edges toward $400–450M and employee equity appreciates modestly on paper but stays fully illiquid, delivering roughly 20% theoretical upside with no cash realization.

Intensifying competition from Mercado Pago and Uala — both aggressively expanding digital-dollar features — combined with LatAm regulatory friction or a macro shock (peso crisis, stablecoin restrictions) compresses growth and forces a flat or down round; the $90.3M preference stack severely impairs common equity, resulting in approximately -50% loss of grant-date value.