DolarApp

ARQ successfully expands its comprehensive financial platform across Latin America, capturing significant market share from traditional banks and smaller fintechs by leveraging its stablecoin infrastructure and new credit/wealth management products. Annualized transaction volume surpasses $30B, driving revenue to $300M+ by 2028 and justifying a $1.2B+ valuation at 4x revenue, well above the assumed current $400M.

ARQ maintains strong growth in its core markets, expanding its user base and product offerings as planned, but faces intense competition from established players like Wise and local banks. Revenue grows steadily to ~$150M by 2028, leading to an acquisition or next funding round at a $600M valuation, representing a moderate return on current equity.

Increased regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins, aggressive moves by incumbents (e.g., Wise or a major LatAm bank launching a direct competitor), or slower-than-expected adoption of new products stifle ARQ's growth. Revenue stalls below $75M, leading to a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $160M, resulting in substantial loss of common stock value given the $75M in liquidation preferences.