-37%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries A

Rank

#3062

Sector

Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Deno offers speculative long-term upside but carries significant downside risk due to intense competition, stale valuation, and recent turmoil.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (15%)+61%

Multiple expands to 15x driven by an IPO window or category leadership in secure runtimes; revenue reaches ~$13.4M. Net of 20% dilution, equity returns ~61%.

Base (40%)-14%

Multiple converges to ~8x, reflecting competitive pressures from Node.js and Cloudflare. Revenue growth slows. After dilution, equity loses ~14%.

Bear (45%)-89%

Multiple compresses to 3x due to sustained losses and incumbent dominance. Exit value $40.2M barely above $30.9M preference, leaving common stock near worthless (-89%).

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

31%

Total preferred stock of $30.9M represents 31% of the assumed $100M entry valuation, giving preferred a significant liquidation preference.

Dilution Risk

high

Given the Series A was over 4 years ago and the company is losing money, a Series B round or down round within 24 months is highly likely, diluting existing shareholders by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary trading activity reported. Equity is illiquid until a liquidity event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Deno's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How will Deno differentiate from Node.js and Bun in the next 24 months?”

  • 2

    “What is the revenue split between self-hosted Deno and Deno Deploy?”

  • 3

    “What is the company's current burn rate and expected time to next funding round?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -37% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.