-76%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries A

Rank

#2746

Sector

Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Deno presents a risky equity opportunity with a moderate expected upside of ~31% over a two-year horizon.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (15%)+300%

Deno 2's npm compatibility and JSR drive significant developer adoption for new projects and edge computing, leading to a substantial increase in Deno Deploy's commercial usage. Revenue exceeds $40M by 2028, justifying a $480M valuation.

Base (40%)+50%

Deno continues to grow steadily, carving out a niche in modern web development and serverless edge computing, but struggles to significantly displace Node.js or Bun in the broader market. Revenue reaches $15M-$20M by 2028, leading to a $180M valuation.

Bear (45%)-75%

Intense competition from Node.js and Bun, coupled with the ongoing trademark dispute and challenges in scaling Deno Deploy, limits market penetration and revenue growth. A down round or acquisition at a valuation of $30M significantly impacts common equity holders due to the $31M in liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Investors hold $31M in liquidation preferences, representing 25.8% of the estimated $120M current valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series A company, Deno will likely require additional funding rounds, leading to further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no indication of active secondary markets or tender offers for Deno's equity at this stage.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Deno's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is Deno planning to differentiate and gain significant market share against the entrenched ecosystem of Node.js and the performance advantages of Bun, especially after Deno 2's focus on npm compatibility?”

  • 2

    “Given Deno's current revenue of ~$9.7M and the scaling back of Deno Deploy regions, what are the key strategies for accelerating revenue growth and expanding the commercial offerings like Deno KV over the next two years?”

  • 3

    “With $31M in total funding and the Series A round in 2022, what is the company's anticipated timeline and strategy for a liquidity event, and how does the preference stack impact common stock holders in various exit scenarios?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -76% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.