+42%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries A

Building The Next Generation of Night Vision Devices

Rank

#2038

Sector

Defense Tech, Artificial Intelligence, Imaging

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Deepnight has genuinely impressive early traction — $4.6M ARR with named Air Force and Army customers in under two years is rare for defense tech and signals real product-market fit.

Last updated: May 5, 2026

Bull (20%)+280%

Deepnight wins a large DoD program-of-record or is acquired by a defense prime at 20-30x ARR ($100-150M exit), growing revenue from $4.6M to $25M+ by 2027 and reaching a ~$140-160M Series B/C valuation. Net of one dilutive round (~20%), employee equity from an estimated $35-40M entry roughly quadruples.

Base (37%)+50%

Deepnight steadily expands its Air Force and Army contracts and adds 2-3 commercial wins, scaling to $12-18M ARR by 2027 and raising a Series B at ~$60-75M post-money. After ~20% dilution, employee equity appreciates roughly 50% versus the estimated $35-40M entry valuation.

Bear (43%)-75%

Defense procurement stalls — incumbents leverage entrenched DoD relationships to delay or block Deepnight's contract wins, and ARR plateaus near $5-7M. The company is forced into a flat or down Series A/B within 18 months, severely diluting common holders and erasing ~75% of entry-grant value.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

30%

With $11M in total funding against an estimated $35-40M post-money valuation, preferred shareholders hold a ~28-31% liquidation preference overhang — at the high-to-severe boundary.

Dilution Risk

high

Pre-Series A stage with 14 employees means 2-3 more large funding rounds are likely before any liquidity event, potentially diluting early employees by 40-60% in aggregate.

Secondary Liquidity

none

At $11M total funding and early-stage VC classification, there is no established secondary market; any pre-exit liquidity is effectively zero.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Deepnight's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the acquisition vehicle (SBIR/STTR, OTA, IDIQ) for your Air Force and Army contracts, what is each contract's ceiling value, and when are they up for renewal or extension?”

  • 2

    “Is Deepnight selling software licenses to OEMs like L3Harris to embed into existing hardware, or competing directly for end-user contracts — and how does that affect gross margin at scale?”

  • 3

    “What does the current cap table and option pool look like, what is my strike price relative to the most recent 409A, and what revenue milestone triggers the next raise?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +42% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.