-9%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries D+

Analytics engineering platform for transforming data in cloud warehouses

Rank

#2794

Sector

Data Infrastructure

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the negative expected return (-8.6%), moderate confidence, and high risk, the equity upside is unattractive over a 2-year horizon.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)+73%

Exit at 15x comp multiple on $317M ARR yields $4.76B; after 20% dilution and preference, common stock returns 93% pre-dilution, net 73%.

Base (35%)+3%

Exit at 10x comp multiple on $317M ARR yields $3.17B; after 20% dilution and preference, common stock returns 23% pre-dilution, net 3%.

Bear (45%)-54%

Exit at 6x comp multiple on $317M ARR yields $1.9B; common stock returns -34% pre-dilution, net -54% after 20% dilution.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: 1% (raw: -9%, adjustment: +9%)

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

1558%

Total funding of $414.4M versus valuation of $2.66B, representing 15.6% overhang; bear case exit still above preferred, so common retains value.

Dilution Risk

high

Last round over 4 years ago; a funding round within 24 months is highly probable, resulting in ~20% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market trading at $2.66B provides some liquidity, but likely limited for employees.

View all 33 open roles at dbt Labs →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on dbt Labs's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does dbt plan to differentiate from Snowflake and Databricks' native transformation features?”

  • 2

    “What is the revenue mix between self-serve and enterprise, and how is unit economics evolving?”

  • 3

    “Given the merger with Fivetran, how will equity be structured for new hires?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -9% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.