-45%

est. 2Y upside i

Productivity

Rank

#3193

Sector

Business/Productivity Software

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity offer carries a negative expected upside of -45% over 2 years due to the high $171M preference stack (57% of valuation) and stale $300M valuation.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+37%

Exit at 7x forward revenue ($392M). IPO window or category leadership via Gartner recognition and DoD certifications. Common equity after $171M preference yields 71.3% pre-dilution; 20% dilution reduces to 37.0%.

Base (55%)-50%

Exit at 4.5x forward revenue ($252M). Multiple converges to public comps. After preference, common gets $81M vs entry common $129M, a -37.2% return; 20% dilution deepens to -49.8%.

Bear (25%)-100%

Exit at 2.5x forward revenue ($140M). Multiple compresses below comps. Exit below $171M funding, common stock recovers nothing. -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

5700%

Total preferred funding of $171M represents 57% of the $300M valuation, meaning common stock holds only 43% of the current enterprise value.

Dilution Risk

high

With $80M raised in July 2024 and likely need for additional capital given growth, a 20% dilution from a future round within 24 months is assumed.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary trading activity observed; common stock is illiquid.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on CTERA's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does CTERA's hybrid cloud file service differentiate from Box and Dropbox in enterprise compliance?”

  • 2

    “What is the revenue contribution from the DoD and regulated industries, and how scalable is that model?”

  • 3

    “Given the $171M preference stack, how should I think about common equity value in a downside scenario?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -45% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.