+24%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Using AI to help dementia patients age at home

Rank

#2752

Sector

HealthTech

Est. Liquidity

~6Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Craniometrix presents a differentiated, government-reimbursed dementia care thesis with real clinical credibility (Johns Hopkins, $4M ARR, GUIDE program positioning), but the equity mechanics are unfavorable for a 2-year horizon given the February 2026 Series A close.

Last updated: May 13, 2026

Bull (18%)+200%

GUIDE program enrollment scales aggressively, driving ARR from $4M to $18M+ by 2028 and supporting a Series B at roughly $180-200M (~11-12x ARR). After ~20% Series B dilution and $21.5M in liquidation preferences being paid through, common equity holders realize approximately 200% upside.

Base (52%)+20%

Steady but moderate GUIDE enrollment growth brings ARR to ~$8-9M by 2028, supporting a Series B at ~$80-90M valuation. After new round dilution (~20%) and the $21.5M preference stack absorbing a disproportionate share of proceeds, common equity upside compresses to roughly 20%.

Bear (30%)-75%

CMS reimbursement rates are cut, enrollment stalls, or GUIDE program eligibility tightens, leaving ARR flat near $4-5M and forcing a down round or acqui-hire at $25-40M. With $21.5M in liquidation preferences consuming most exit proceeds, employee common equity loses approximately 75% of notional value.

Est. time to liquidity~6.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

33%

Total liquidation preferences of $21.5M represent an estimated ~33% of a ~$65M post-Series A valuation, meaning common equity holders only participate meaningfully after the full $21.5M (plus any future round preferences) is returned to preferred investors first.

Dilution Risk

high

As a freshly-closed Series A company at $4M ARR, Craniometrix will almost certainly require at least one additional financing round (Series B) within the 2-year horizon, likely diluting current common holders by 15-25% before any liquidity event.

Secondary Liquidity

none

At Series A stage with 36 employees, no secondary market activity should be expected; employee equity is effectively illiquid until an IPO or acquisition, realistically 5-7 years from now.

View all 9 open roles at Craniometrix →

Last updated: May 18, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Craniometrix's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is your current revenue per enrolled patient across GUIDE complexity tiers, and what does unit economics look like at 1,000 versus 10,000 enrolled patients — specifically, what drives the step-function in margin?”

  • 2

    “How dependent is the business on CMS GUIDE program continuation, and what is the product and revenue roadmap if CMS reduces reimbursement rates or restructures program eligibility in the next 2-3 years?”

  • 3

    “Can you walk me through the fully diluted cap table, including liquidation preference terms and any participation rights for current preferred holders — and what exit valuation would be required for common stockholders to achieve a 2x return on today's strike price?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +24% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.