Convex
+15%
est. 2Y upside i
Convex is a full cloud backend designed to replace your database, server functions, backend functionality, and the interface all the way out to your application.
Rank
#1705
Sector
Developer Tools
Est. Liquidity
~3Y
Data Quality
Data: LowConvex presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for a job candidate.
Last updated: July 20, 2026
Convex achieves strong product-market fit, revenue grows 60% YoY to $24M by 2028, and exits at 12x forward revenue ($288M) via IPO or acquisition, yielding 125% upside before dilution.
Revenue grows 40% YoY to $15M by 2028, multiple converges to 10x ($150M), modest 17% upside before dilution; common stock diluted by 20% reduces to ~0% net.
Growth slows to 20%, revenue reaches $9M, multiple compresses to 6x ($54M), below total funding of $49.7M; preference stack wipes out common stock entirely.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
3880%Total funding of $49.7M represents 38.8% of the $128M valuation; a >1x preference could dilute common stock significantly.
Dilution Risk
highFuture fundraising likely given burn rate; assumption of 20% dilution over 2 years.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo secondary market activity detected; liquidity only upon acquisition or IPO.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Convex's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Convex's reactive approach create defensibility against Firebase and Supabase?”
- 2
“What is the current ARR and what growth metrics matter most?”
- 3
“What is the expected timeline to liquidity and what are the preferred vs common dynamics?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +15% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.