+15%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries B

Convex is a full cloud backend designed to replace your database, server functions, backend functionality, and the interface all the way out to your application.

Rank

#1705

Sector

Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Convex presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for a job candidate.

Last updated: July 20, 2026

Bull (25%)+100%

Convex achieves strong product-market fit, revenue grows 60% YoY to $24M by 2028, and exits at 12x forward revenue ($288M) via IPO or acquisition, yielding 125% upside before dilution.

Base (50%)+20%

Revenue grows 40% YoY to $15M by 2028, multiple converges to 10x ($150M), modest 17% upside before dilution; common stock diluted by 20% reduces to ~0% net.

Bear (25%)-100%

Growth slows to 20%, revenue reaches $9M, multiple compresses to 6x ($54M), below total funding of $49.7M; preference stack wipes out common stock entirely.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

3880%

Total funding of $49.7M represents 38.8% of the $128M valuation; a >1x preference could dilute common stock significantly.

Dilution Risk

high

Future fundraising likely given burn rate; assumption of 20% dilution over 2 years.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity detected; liquidity only upon acquisition or IPO.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Convex's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Convex's reactive approach create defensibility against Firebase and Supabase?”

  • 2

    “What is the current ARR and what growth metrics matter most?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline to liquidity and what are the preferred vs common dynamics?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +15% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.