Convex
-61%
est. 2Y upside i
Convex is a full cloud backend designed to replace your database, server functions, backend functionality, and the interface all the way out to your application.
Rank
#3615
Sector
Developer Tools, Backend-as-a-Service
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumConvex operates in a competitive developer tools market with a differentiated reactive database.
Last updated: March 10, 2026
Convex successfully expands its developer ecosystem, with its reactive database and TypeScript-centric approach becoming the preferred backend for a significant segment of new web applications. This drives rapid revenue growth to over $100M ARR by 2028, justifying a 3x valuation of $384M as it captures market share from competitors like Supabase and Xano.
Convex continues to grow steadily within its niche of developers seeking a reactive, TypeScript-first backend. While facing strong competition from Firebase and Supabase, it achieves moderate customer acquisition and expands its enterprise offerings, reaching approximately $50M ARR by 2028 and a valuation of $256M, representing a 100% upside from the current valuation.
Despite its innovative technology, Convex struggles to gain significant traction against the entrenched market positions of Google's Firebase and the rapid growth of Supabase. Revenue growth stalls below $20M ARR, leading to a down round or acquisition at a valuation of $25.6M or less, effectively wiping out common stock value due to the $50M in liquidation preferences.
Preference Stack Risk
severeFunding Intensity
39%Investors hold $50M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at $128M, common shareholders would receive $78M. In an exit at or below $50M, common shareholders would receive nothing.
Dilution Risk
highAs a Series B company, at least 1-2 more significant funding rounds are probable before an exit, which will dilute existing equity holders.
Secondary Liquidity
noneAs a private, early-stage company, there is no active secondary market for shares.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Convex's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Convex plan to differentiate and capture market share against well-established and well-funded incumbents like Google's Firebase and Supabase, particularly as they expand their feature sets and target similar developer segments?”
- 2
“Given the current $128M valuation and $50M in total funding, what is the company's strategy for achieving a valuation multiple that provides significant returns for common shareholders, especially considering the existing liquidation preferences?”
- 3
“What are the key metrics (e.g., developer adoption, enterprise contracts, revenue growth) the company is prioritizing over the next 12-24 months, and what is the expected timeline for a potential liquidity event for employees?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.