Collective Health

collectivehealth.com →

-88%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries D+

Health benefits administration platform for self-funded employers

Rank

#3687

Sector

HealthTech

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Equity upside is deeply negative (-88% expected) due to a stale high valuation, severe preference overhang ($719M vs $1.5B), and strong competitive threats from incumbents.

Last updated: July 21, 2026

Bull (10%)-47%

Revenue grows to $197M and exit multiple expands to 4x due to a favorable IPO window or category leadership. Exit value $789M, but preference overhang and dilution reduce upside to -47%.

Base (50%)-87%

Revenue grows to $197M but exit multiple converges to 2.5x, in line with public comps. Exit value $493M. After 20% dilution, common stock returns -87%.

Bear (40%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 1.5x, exit value $296M below $719M liquidation preference. Common stock recovers -100% due to preference stack.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -89% (raw: -88%, adjustment: -1%)

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

50300%

Total funding $719M represents 48% of the $1.5B valuation, meaning common stock has limited recovery in a downside exit.

Dilution Risk

high

With no recent funding round and likely cash burn, a down round or significant raise is probable within 24 months, diluting common shareholders by an estimated 20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market is indicated; liquidity will rely on an IPO or acquisition, which is uncertain.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Collective Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is Collective Health's path to profitability given the high burn and competitive pressure from incumbents like Accolade?”

  • 2

    “How does the per-employee-per-month pricing model scale with employer size and what is the long-term unit economics?”

  • 3

    “Given the Series F was in 2021, what is the company's plan for future funding and how does that affect my equity ownership?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -88% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.