-36%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries D+

Continuous integration and delivery platform for software teams

Rank

#3603

Sector

Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the -36% expected upside over 2 years, this equity grant is likely to lose value.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+19%

Bull case driven by successful AI integrations (MCP server) and IPO window, allowing exit multiple to hold at 12x. Projected revenue of $150M yields $1.8B exit, but 20% dilution reduces upside to 18.5%.

Base (45%)-22%

Base case: exit multiple converges to 8.5x, exit value $1.275B, just below entry. Dilution of 20% and revenue growth to $150M still yield -21.9% return.

Bear (45%)-62%

Bear case: multiple compresses to 5x due to competition from GitHub/GitLab, exit value $750M. After 20% dilution, common stock loses 62.3%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -41% (raw: -36%, adjustment: -5%)

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2420%

Total preferred stock of $315M represents 24% of current valuation, exposing common stock to significant preference overhang in a downside scenario.

Dilution Risk

high

Company has not raised since 2021 and lacks profitability, suggesting a future dilutive round within 2 years.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Recent secondary trades at $1.3B imply limited liquidity and a 23.5% decline from prior value.

Other — 11 roles

View all 11 open roles at CircleCI →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on CircleCI's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does CircleCI differentiate from GitHub Actions in an AI-driven CI/CD world?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's path to profitability given the competitive pricing pressure?”

  • 3

    “Given the flat secondary valuation, what is the expected timeline to liquidity and the likelihood of a down round?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -36% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.