Circle Medical

circlemedical.com →

-9%

est. 2Y upside i

Healthcare

Modern primary care via video and in-person

Rank

#2206

Sector

Healthcare

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Circle Medical presents a unique equity opportunity with potentially significant upside, primarily driven by its extremely low current valuation of $27M against $100M ARR and strong fundamentals (65% growth, profitable).

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+100%

Circle Medical successfully resolves the USAO billing investigation with minimal financial impact and is acquired by a strategic buyer. While its strong fundamentals (profitable, 65% YoY growth, $100M ARR) suggest a much higher valuation, the equity grant's 100% upside cap means a bull case valuation of $54M, still representing only 0.54x ARR.

Base (45%)+75%

Circle Medical continues its strong growth and profitability, but the ongoing regulatory scrutiny and competitive landscape lead to an acquisition at a modest valuation multiple. A sale at $47.25M (0.47x ARR) would represent a 75% upside, reflecting a slight re-rating from the current low valuation.

Bear (30%)-50%

The USAO investigation into billing practices results in significant fines or a prolonged sales process, deterring potential buyers. This, combined with intense competition, leads to a down-round or fire sale, resulting in a 50% decrease in valuation to $13.5M, wiping out most common stock value due to severe liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~1.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

67%

Investors hold $18M in liquidation preferences, which is 66.7% of the current $27M valuation, significantly ahead of common stock holders. This includes the $14M acquisition cost by WELL Health in 2020 and prior funding rounds.

Dilution Risk

moderate

While new funding rounds are less likely given the M&A process, the terms of a potential acquisition or spin-off could still impact employee equity value.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no indication of active secondary markets or tender offers for Circle Medical equity as it is a subsidiary undergoing a strategic review.

View all 1 open roles at Circle Medical →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Circle Medical's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is Circle Medical actively addressing the USAO investigation into billing practices, and what is the expected timeline and potential impact on the company's valuation and strategic alternatives process?”

  • 2

    “Given Circle Medical's impressive $100M ARR and 65% YoY growth, how does the company plan to leverage its AI-powered platform and insurance partnerships to further expand market penetration beyond 14% in a highly competitive landscape?”

  • 3

    “With WELL Health actively seeking strategic alternatives for Circle Medical, how does the company envision the equity structure and potential liquidity timeline for employees joining now, especially considering the existing liquidation preferences?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -9% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.