-78%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries D+

Rank

#4306

Sector

Fintech / Blockchain

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Chia Network operates in a highly competitive blockchain infrastructure sector with a $500M valuation, but very low core revenue (~$71k) and negative gross margins (~-107%).

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (5%)+150%

Permuto Capital successfully launches its regulated equity tokenization platform, attracting significant institutional adoption for tokenized U.S. equities and carbon credits. This drives Chia Network's core software and service revenue to over $100M by 2028, justifying a $1.25B valuation at IPO, a 2.5x increase from current levels.

Base (30%)+10%

Chia Network makes modest progress with Permuto Capital, securing initial partnerships but facing slower-than-expected adoption due to regulatory hurdles and incumbent resistance. Core revenue remains low, supplemented by XCH sales, leading to a flat or slight increase in valuation to $550M by 2028, barely above current pricing.

Bear (65%)-75%

Permuto Capital struggles to gain traction or faces significant regulatory setbacks, while core software revenue remains negligible and negative gross margins persist. Continued reliance on XCH pre-farm sales proves unsustainable, leading to further layoffs, a down round, or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $125M, wiping out most common stock value given the preference stack.

Est. time to liquidity~2.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

27%

Investors hold $141M in liquidation preferences, representing 28.2% of the current $500M valuation. In an exit at or below current valuation, common stock holders would receive significantly less.

Dilution Risk

high

Given the low core revenue and unprofitability, additional funding rounds are likely if the IPO is further delayed, leading to potential dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no indication of an active secondary market for Chia Network's private equity; the Permuto product is for tokenizing public equities, not the company's own shares.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Chia's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Chia plan to accelerate revenue generation from its core software services and support, especially given the current low figures and negative gross margin, to reduce reliance on XCH pre-farm sales?”

  • 2

    “With Permuto Capital aiming to tokenize U.S. equities, how does Chia envision navigating the complex regulatory landscape and achieving widespread institutional adoption, particularly against established financial market infrastructure providers?”

  • 3

    “Considering the IPO delays and the launch of Permuto's 'novel equity product,' what is the most realistic timeline and path to liquidity for common stock holders, and what are the key milestones the company needs to achieve?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -78% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.