Chia

-28%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries D+

Rank

#2897

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

With a stale $500M valuation and no revenue data, the equity analysis suggests a negative expected return of -28% over 2 years.

Last updated: July 21, 2026

Bull (20%)+80%

IPO on NASDAQ/NYSE within 2 years drives valuation to $1B. Dilution of 20% reduces net upside to 80%.

Base (45%)-20%

Valuation stagnates at $500M as IPO is delayed or fails to excite. Dilution trims 20%, resulting in -20% return.

Bear (35%)-100%

IPO fails, token price collapses further, valuation drops to $20M. Preference stack wipes out common stock, leading to -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

1600%

Total funding of $80.34M against a $500M valuation gives a 16% overhang; bear case exit below funding wipes out common.

Dilution Risk

high

Company last raised in 2021 and likely needs additional capital before IPO, implying high dilution risk.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market data available; token liquidity is separate from equity.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Chia's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“How will Chia differentiate from Ethereum 2.0 and other PoS blockchains?”
2
“What is the revenue model beyond transaction fees?”
3
“What is the expected timeline to IPO and what liquidity options exist for employees?”

Our model estimates -28% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.