-3%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTech

Blockchain analysis platform for compliance and investigation

Rank

#2770

Sector

FinTech

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Considering the expected -3% upside over 2 years and high bear-case downside, the equity upside is unattractive.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (15%)+90%

With strong crypto adoption and IPO window, exit multiple expands to 9x, driving ~$3B valuation; upside 89.6% after dilution.

Base (55%)+20%

Growth continues at ~25% YoY, exit multiple converges to 6x, valuation ~$2B; upside 19.7% after dilution.

Bear (30%)-91%

Growth slows further, multiple compresses to 3x; preference stack absorbs most value, common recovers only $422M, -90.8% after dilution.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: 2% (raw: -3%, adjustment: +5%)

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

4060%

Total preferred stock of $587.4M represents 40.6% of current valuation, significantly reducing common stock recovery in downside scenarios.

Dilution Risk

high

With $587M in funding and negative cash flow, additional equity raise likely, diluting current common holders by ~20%.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market exists (Oct 2025 secondary transaction at same valuation), providing some liquidity for employees before IPO.

View all 48 open roles at Chainalysis →

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Chainalysis's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How do you assess the risk of revenue deceleration given the 24% revenue delta drop from prior estimates?”

  • 2

    “What is your view on the company's path to profitability and how will it impact future fundraising needs?”

  • 3

    “Given the lack of IPO plans, how do you think about the liquidity of your equity over a 2-4 year horizon?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -3% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.