Carto
+470%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#17
Sector
Location Intelligence
Est. Liquidity
~3Y
Data Quality
Data: LowDespite a stale $50M valuation, Carto's 55% growth and AI trajectory suggest substantial potential upside, with probability-weighted return near 470%.
Last updated: July 19, 2026
AI spatial analytics leadership and potential IPO window drive exit multiple to 10x, yielding $536M exit value. Capped at +200% per stage constraints, net -20% dilution = 180% upside.
Exit multiple converges to 8x, aligning with public SaaS comps near median. Projected 2026 revenue of $53.7M produces $429M exit, net 738.6% upside after 20% dilution.
Competition from Esri and Google compresses multiple to 4x, resulting in $215M exit. Despite preference overhang, exit exceeds $92M funding, yielding 329% before 20% dilution = 309%.
Preference Stack Risk
severeFunding Intensity
18400%$92M in preferred stock sits ahead of $50M common equity, a 184% preference overhang.
Dilution Risk
highWith no funding since 2021 and $92M total funding, a capital raise is likely, diluting common by 15-25%.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo secondary market activity indicated from the data.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Carto's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How will Carto differentiate its platform against native geospatial tools from Google Cloud and Snowflake?”
- 2
“With a hybrid committed/Pay-As-You-Go model, what is the unit economics and expansion strategy?”
- 3
“What is the expected path to liquidity (M&A or IPO) and how does the equity structure impact common stockholders?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +470% upside. What do you think?
Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.
Community Discussion
Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.
Loading comments...
Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.