cargo.one

-35%

est. 2Y upside i

Vertical SaaS

Rank

#3039

Sector

Logistics & Supply Chain

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity outlook is negative under reasonable assumptions, with a probability-weighted expected return of -34.87%.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+17%

AI-native OS gains traction, leading to IPO or acquisition at 7x revenue. Exit value $116.9M vs $100M entry, net 16.9% upside.

Base (50%)-17%

Multiple converges to 5x on $16.7M revenue, exit $83.5M, -16.5% return. Typical for logistics tech.

Bear (30%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 2x, exit $33.4M below $84M preferred; common stock zero.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

84%

Total funding $84M represents 84% of estimated $100M entry valuation, leaving thin common equity.

Dilution Risk

low

Recent $20M growth round likely provides >2 years runway; no near-term dilution expected.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market data available; illiquid until exit.

PRODUCT — 10 roles

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on cargo.one's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“How does cargo.one differentiate from airline direct booking portals and prevent disintermediation?”
2
“What is the current revenue model (commission vs subscription) and how are unit economics evolving?”
3
“What is the expected liquidity timeline and does the company have any secondary sale plans?”

Our model estimates -35% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.